Abstract:

As China's urban development enters a new phase focused on enhancing the quality and efficiency of existing urban stock, the inertial momentum of population decline driven by low birthrates continues to intensify. Simultaneously, population aging is entering a period of rapid acceleration, profoundly reshaping the demographic context and conditions for China's urban development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and beyond. This demographic shift persistently poses significant new challenges to urban construction. The intensified "agglomeration-shrinkage" dynamic across cities of different sizes increases the long-term risk of sequential population decline. Rigid growth in fiscal expenditures under municipal responsibilities, mismatches between spatial and facility supply and demand, and an incomplete age-friendly environment are exerting pressure on and necessitating the restructuring of urban infrastructure systems and public service functions. Under this new normal of low birthrates and population aging, future urban development urgently requires a shift in philosophy-prioritizing "investing in people" alongside "investing in physical assets." It is essential to systematically advance urban renewal and age- and child-friendly adaptations, implement tailored urban managed decline strategies by type and phase, enhance the resilient utilization of existing urban spaces, and improve urban governance systems and mechanisms. These measures will foster synergistic development between a high-quality population and high-quality urbanization, collectively advancing the Chinese path to modernization.

Key words: low birthrates, population aging, urban construction, urban transformation