关键词: 粮食安全, 动态风险缓冲储备机制, 供应稳定性

Abstract:

Food security is a paramount national priority. Under the new circumstances characterized by intertwined external risk factors, preventing imported risks and enhancing the risk buffer capacity of grain reserves are essential for strengthening the resilience and risk resistance of China's grain industry. Based on an analysis of current fluctuations in the global grain market, this paper explores potential imported risks to China's food security under the new context, including oversupply of grain, normalization of external risks, monopolistic structures in the grain market, and the "financialization" of grain futures. In response, policy recommendations are proposed for constructing a dynamic risk buffer reserve mechanism for grain in China. These include coordinating stable sources of grain reserves to balance imports and domestic self-sufficiency, optimizing grain monitoring and early warning systems to dynamically manage reserve scales and rhythms, enhancing the resilience of domestic and international supply chains to diversify grain imports and reserves through regional collaboration, and leveraging grain reserves to hedge against the financialization risks of futures, thereby bolstering food security barriers.

Key words: food security, dynamic risk buffer reserve mechanism, supply stability