Abstract:

The defining characteristic of Chinese path to modernization is its massive population scale, which constitutes the foundational strategic reliance for modernization development. Under the long-term effects of low birth rates and rapid aging, China's compressed demographic transition is pronounced, marking an irreversible demographic decline era. Population fluctuations now pose systematic challenges to socioeconomic development and national security, presenting complex issues for modernization efforts while testing the resilience and sustainability of modernization. Based on China's demographic evolution trends and the "two-step" modernization strategic goals, this paper categorizes China's population development under reduced growth conditions into three stages: (1) the population peak period (2022-2035) characterized by maintaining historical peak population levels while gradually declining before achieving basic socialist modernization; (2) the population plateau period (2036-2050) marked by accelerated decline but still massive scale before fully building a modern socialist power; and (3) the population decline period (2051-2100) featuring accelerated population reduction following comprehensive national modernization. By analyzing China's unique demographic transition trajectory and its multidimensional impacts, this study proposes a "three-stage adaptation-three-dimensional coordination" modernization governance system that integrates "investing in people" with "investing in material resources," establishing an incremental, comprehensive governance approach to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for coordinated advancement of high-quality population development and modernization construction.

Key words: Chinese path to modernization, negative population growth, population aging, demographic dividend, high-quality population development